Africa Wants to Own ‘De Beers’. But Are We Catching a Falling Knife?

"Botswana and Angola are bidding $5 billion for the world's most iconic diamond brand. The current owner is fleeing to copper. Lab-grown stones are crushing prices. And two African nations—already dangerously dependent on diamonds—think this is their moment. Resource sovereignty or expensive addiction? By 2027, we'll know who read the market right."

"Anglo American looked at De Beers; 130 years of brand equity, billions in revenue, the company that defined luxury, and said, 'We'd rather own copper mines.' That should tell you something about where the diamond market is going. But Botswana and Angola are running toward what Anglo is running from.

One of them is making the trade of the century. The other is catching a falling knife."

THE GIST:

On November 10, Botswana's president stood before parliament and declared his government is taking "concrete steps" to acquire majority control of De Beers, the $5 billion company that controls roughly 30% of global diamond supply and defines luxury pricing for an entire industry.

Three days earlier, Angola submitted a formal bid for the same company. Officials from both countries had just met on November 7, talked about "perfect alignment", but walked away with separate bids on the table.

Here's the situation: Two African countries, both dangerously dependent on commodity exports, are competing to buy the most iconic diamond brand in the world.

But here's what makes the timing wild:

Anglo American, current owner of De Beers, is running away from diamonds. They rejected a takeover bid from BHP, restructured the entire company, and decided to exit the diamond business entirely. Their new priority? Copper. Energy transition metals. Industrial commodities with actual growth trajectories.

Right now, De Beers is sitting on $2 billion in unsold inventory. They can't move the product. Production dropped 25% in 2024 because demand is "persistently weak." Lab-grown diamonds, chemically identical to natural stones but 70-90% cheaper are eating the market alive.

The lab-grown market is worth $28-30 billion in 2025 and growing double-digits annually. Millennials and Gen Z don't care if it came from a mine or a lab, they care about size, clarity, and price. For the cost of a 1-carat natural diamond, you can buy a 2-carat lab-grown stone with better quality. Same sparkle. One-tenth the price.

Anglo American looked at all this and said: "We're out."

Botswana and Angola looked at the same data and said: "We're in."

So the question isn't just who wins the bid.

The question is: Is this resource sovereignty, Africa finally owning the industries built on its resources, or is this catching a falling knife? Are two African governments buying strategic control at the perfect moment, or are they doubling down on yesterday's commodity with tomorrow's debt?

WHY IT MATTERS:

For Founders:

If natural diamonds rebound (the Pro):

Owning De Beers means Africa controls more than mining. Would mean we control sorting, valuation, marketing, and branding. That's where the real margins are.

Right now, Botswana digs the diamonds. De Beers sorts them in London, markets them globally, and captures the premium. If Botswana/Angola win, that infrastructure could move to Gaborone, Luanda, Johannesburg.

Jobs: Gemologists, luxury brand managers, jewelry manufacturers, retail operations. Not just mining engineers, the whole value chain.

Opportunity: Building cutting and polishing hubs, diamond trading centers, luxury branding infrastructure tied to "authentically African" natural stones.

If lab-grown keeps winning (Cons):

You're building a business around a product that consumers are actively abandoning for a 70-90% cheaper alternative.

De Beers has been trying to fight this for five years. They launched their own lab-grown brand (Lightbox) in 2018, then shut it down in 2025 because they couldn't make the economics work. If De Beers, with 130 years of brand equity and the world's best diamond marketers, can't defend natural diamond premiums, what makes you think Botswana or Angola can?

The downstream jobs (cutting, polishing, branding) only exist if there's demand. Right now, De Beers is sitting on $2 billion in unsold inventory. That's not a supply problem. That's a demand problem.

The parallel:

Imagine betting on film cameras in 2005. Yes, film has artistic cachet. Analog purists will always exist. But the market has moved to digital. Prestige doesn't fight economics.

The honest question founders need to ask: Am I building for a rebound, or am I building for a market in permanent decline?

For Investors: The Upside & Downside

THE UPSIDE: Why buying De Beers could be a smart move

1. You’re buying when everyone else is scared
Anglo is a forced seller, it needs cash and is restructuring.
That usually means the price is low.
If you believe diamonds will bounce back, this is the classic “buy it cheap” moment.

2. They could control global supply and prices
If Botswana or Angola take charge, they can decide how much diamond supply hits the market.
Less supply = higher prices.
Think of it like trying to build an “OPEC for diamonds.”

3. They get to own the story, not just the stones
De Beers isn’t just a miner, it’s a myth-maker. The term “Diamonds are forever” came from them.
Owning that brand means owning the global conversation about what makes natural diamonds special, especially now that lab-grown stones are everywhere.

4. They finally capture the real money
Right now, African countries mostly earn from the mining part, the lowest-margin end.
But De Beers controls the middle: sorting, sales, marketing, branding.
That’s where the real profits are.
Buying De Beers means bringing that money home.

5. It’s not only about cash, it’s about control
For both countries, this is a sovereignty play.
Own the infrastructure, own the pricing power, own your economic destiny.

THE DOWNSIDE: Why this could be a dangerous bet

1. The diamond market itself is struggling
De Beers is sitting on billions of dollars in diamonds it can’t sell.
Demand is weak. Anglo is leaving not because it’s bored but because the business is shaky.
These problems are not short-term, they’re structural.

2. Lab-grown diamonds are eating the market alive
They’re cheaper (sometimes 70–90% cheaper).
They look the same.
Younger buyers are choosing them.
This is a major cultural shift, not a fad.

3. Botswana is already too dependent on diamonds
Diamonds make up 80% of its exports and fund one-third of government revenue.
Borrowing billions to buy MORE diamond exposure is the opposite of diversification.
It’s doubling down on your biggest vulnerability.

4. If prices crash again, citizens will feel the pain
Diamonds have crashed twice in the last five years.
If a government buys De Beers and the market falls again, the fallout hits: budgets, schools, hospitals, jobs
This isn’t a private-sector risk. It becomes a national problem.

5. Angola’s financing is unclear, and that’s a red flag
Angola says its national budget won’t fund the bid. So who will?
A sovereign fund? External lenders? Strategic partners?
Opaque financing today becomes public debt tomorrow.

The fundamental question:

Can marketing save natural diamonds when lab-grown offers 70-90% savings for an identical product?

Anglo American, the company that currently owns De Beers, looked at that question and said "No." They're pivoting to copper, which is boring, industrial, and actually growing (EVs, renewable energy, data centers all need copper).

Botswana and Angola are saying "Yes."

One of them is reading the market correctly. By 2027, we'll know who.

For Professionals: What This Means for Your Career

So let’s make this personal.
If Africa ends up controlling De Beers, what does it mean for you, the young professional in Gaborone, Luanda, Lagos, Nairobi, or Johannesburg?

Short-Term (2025–2027): A Wave of New Jobs, If the deal goes through

If Botswana or Angola takes control, De Beers operations will shift even more onto African soil.
That means more jobs beyond mining, because the money in diamonds isn’t only in digging, it’s in polishing, grading, selling, branding, and storytelling.

We’re talking jobs in:

• Gemology: grading, certifying, quality assessments.
• Luxury branding: marketing, product strategy, retail partnerships.
• Jewelry production: cutting, polishing, precision craftsmanship.
• Sales & trading: auction operations, digital marketplaces, customer experience.

This is the part people forget:
Diamond power is not just geology, it’s branding.
So skills in luxury marketing, brand storytelling, retail operations, data, logistics, and strategy suddenly become relevant in places where they weren’t before.

Botswana already does some of this through Debswana.
Angola wants to do it at scale.

For a young African professional, this could mean new career paths that previously only existed in Antwerp, Mumbai, or Tel Aviv.

Medium-Term (2027–2030): The Make-or-Break Phase

This is where things can go very right or very wrong.

If natural diamonds stabilize or become premium luxury again:

• Africa becomes a real global hub for the diamond business.
• Cities like Gaborone, Luanda, and Joburg attract high-end talent.
• Those roles in gemology, branding, marketing, and jewelry design become long-term careers, not short-term experiments.

But if lab-grown diamonds keep rising?

• Demand for natural stones keeps slipping.
• Diamond marketing budgets get slashed.
• Cutting/polishing factories slow down.
• And African governments quietly shift De Beers toward industrial diamonds (used for machinery and electronics), which are low-margin and not glamorous.

Translation: Those exciting luxury jobs vanish.

The Generational Question That Matters Most

If you’re 26, 28, 30, just building your career, you need to ask one uncomfortable question:

“Is my government investing in my future… or in its nostalgia?”

Because let’s be honest:

The $5 billion being lined up for De Beers could also buy:

• Enough solar power to run entire national grids
• Dozens of AI and research centers
• Hundreds of tech incubators
• A semiconductor manufacturing pipeline
• Pan-African transport and logistics upgrades
• World-class creative, digital, and knowledge-economy infrastructure

But your leaders are choosing diamonds.

That choice will shape your economic opportunities for the next 10–20 years.

The Honest Future Scenario

If African governments bet correctly, if natural diamonds rebound, if global luxury stabilizes, if African ownership sparks real industrialization, then you’re about to see a generation of African professionals leading a global luxury category from the continent.

But if they’re wrong, if lab-grown keeps rising, if demand keeps sliding, if this turns into another commodity dependence trap, then your career choices will shrink because of a decision made at a boardroom table in 2025.

This isn’t abstract.
It’s not “macro.”
It’s not just mining news.

It’s your career. Your industry. Your options. Your future.

And that’s why this De Beers story matters more than it seems.

THE BIG PICTURE:

This is the same story we've been telling all week, just in a different industry.

Monday: Nigeria's oil boom delivered 4.2% growth. Ghana grew 6.3% without oil. Kenya grew 5% without oil. The resource advantage became a resource trap.

Wednesday: Africa assembled 60,000 electric motorcycles. But 60-70% of components are imported. Are we building toward manufacturing, or settling for assembly?

Friday: Africa is bidding to own De Beers, the most iconic luxury brand built on African resources. But the owner is fleeing, the market is shifting, and lab-grown is winning.

The pattern: Africa wants to move from extraction to ownership. From digging resources to controlling the value chain.

That's the right instinct. But the execution reveals the tension: Are we buying into industries with futures, or industries with pasts?

Botswana’s Play: A Defensive Move

Botswana already has skin in the game, 15% ownership of De Beers, plus Debswana, the 50-50 joint venture that supplies most of De Beers’ best diamonds.
And diamonds aren’t just part of Botswana’s economy, they are the economy.

• 80% of export earnings
• One-third of government revenue

Botswana isn’t trying to reinvent the industry.
They’re trying to protect the one thing keeping the country stable.

Their logic is simple: control the house.

If they own De Beers, they can:

• Decide how much diamond supply hits the market
• Hold back production when prices fall
• Push the premium narrative around “natural” diamonds
• Move more cutting and polishing jobs from Europe back to Botswana
• Capture more of the value chain instead of exporting raw stones and importing expensive branding

From their perspective, this isn’t ambition, it’s survival.

The Problem: Concentration Risk, On Steroids

Botswana already felt the pain when diamond prices crashed in 2023–24.

• Growth dipped from 6% to almost zero
• Government spending tightened
• Jobs disappeared
• The economy shook because one commodity sneezed

Now the country is preparing to borrow billions, and just to be clear, $5 billion is roughly one-third of Botswana’s entire GDP . They are bidding to buy more exposure to the same commodity that just destabilized their economy.

This leaves you with two interpretations:

1. Strategic depth

Botswana believes that controlling De Beers will let them stabilize revenue, smooth out volatility, and reshape the market to their advantage.

2. Doubling down on addiction

Instead of diversifying, they’re tightening their dependence on a resource whose global demand is uncertain and whose mid-tier market is being eaten by lab-grown diamonds.

And the question no politician wants to answer:

If diamonds crash again in 2026 or 2027 and Botswana is sitting on $5B in debt from buying De Beers who pays?

It won’t be De Beers executives.

It’ll be: Teachers, Nurses, Civil servants, Infrastructure budgets, Social programs, Ordinary citizens

This is the real cost of concentration:
When the commodity stumbles, the country bleeds.

Angola's play: Aspirational: A Leapfrog Attempt

Angola isn’t trying to protect an old system, it’s trying to upgrade its position entirely.

For decades, the country has mostly exported rough stones. The raw stuff. The lowest margin part of the entire diamond business.

Now Angola wants to move from being the “mine” to being the market.

What they really want isn’t just diamonds, it’s De Beers’ brain.

They want:

• De Beers’ technology, the sorting, scanning, and valuation systems that take a rough stone and determine its true worth.
• De Beers’ global sales machine, the auctions, the sight-holder networks, the luxury partnerships, the trust.
• De Beers’ know-how, the ability to train Angolan gemologists, build local cutting hubs, and turn Luanda into a real diamond centre.

This fits neatly into Angola’s post-oil survival strategy.

• Diamonds are already Angola’s second-largest export.
• If they can control the brand, the storytelling, and the distribution, they capture far more value than they ever did from rough stones.

Their logic is bold but simple:

Why spend 20 years trying to build world-class systems from scratch…
when you can buy the company that has already mastered them?

De Beers becomes the accelerator, the shortcut into the premium side of the industry.

The Risk: The Money and the Market

And this is where things get murky.

Angola’s finance ministry has made one thing clear:

The national budget is NOT paying for this.

So where is the $5B coming from?

• Sovereign wealth fund?
• External lenders?
• Chinese strategic partners?
• Quasi-state investment vehicles?
• A stitched-together mix of all the above?

When financing is opaque, the liabilities usually show up later in unexpected places, under unexpected names.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth:

If De Beers underperforms, someone still has to pay.
If diamond prices keep falling, someone absorbs the losses.
If the deal becomes a burden, someone’s books take the hit.
Whether that “someone” is the sovereign fund, the state banks, or the taxpayer disguised in another form the cost doesn’t disappear.

And the bigger strategic question: Why bet on what the seller no longer believes in?

Anglo American looked at diamonds, after a century of mining them, and said:

“This market is too messy. We’d rather bet on copper.”

Angola looked at diamonds and said:

“This is our path to industrialization.”

Both cannot be right.

And that tension is exactly where this De Beers story becomes fascinating — and risky.

And the bigger strategic question: Why bet on what the seller no longer believes in?

The market reality: Lab-grown is eating natural diamonds alive

Here's what Anglo American saw before they decided to sell:

De Beers' current situation:

• $2 billion in unsold inventory (they can't move the product)
• Production down 25% (cutting output because demand is weak)
• Wholesale prices falling (even with supply discipline, they can't defend margins)

The lab-grown threat:

• Market size: $28-30 billion in 2025, growing double-digits annually
• Price gap: Lab-grown diamonds are 70-90% cheaper than natural for the same size, cut, clarity
• Consumer driver: Price + quality, not just ethics (younger buyers want value)
• Production: China and India dominate manufacturing (flooding the market)
• Demand: U.S. and India leading adoption (bridal market, fashion jewelry)

The consumer math:

For the price of a 1-carat natural diamond ($5,000-8,000), you can buy a 2-carat lab-grown diamond with better clarity ($500-1,000).

Same chemical composition (pure carbon). Same hardness (10 on Mohs scale). Same sparkle.

The only difference: One took 3 billion years to form underground. The other took 3 weeks in a lab.

To a 28-year-old buying an engagement ring, which one makes sense?

De Beers tried to fight this. They launched Lightbox, their own lab-grown brand, in 2018. The pitch: "Lab-grown for fashion, natural for forever."

In 2025, they shut Lightbox down. It didn't work.

If De Beers with 130 years of marketing genius, the "A Diamond is Forever" slogan, and total control of brand narrative, can't defend natural diamond premiums... can Botswana and Angola do better?

The Angola-Botswana subplot: Cooperation or competition?

On November 7, officials from Botswana and Angola met. They talked about "perfect alignment." They said they want to work together.

Then they both submitted separate bids.

So what's the real story?

Option A: They're coordinating

Maybe they're planning a joint bid. Botswana takes majority control (they're already 15% owner, largest supplier). Angola gets a strategic minority stake (gains access to tech, marketing, knowledge transfer). They split governance, revenue, and decision-making.

If this happens, it's "Africa Inc." two producer countries coordinating to own the value chain instead of competing against each other.

This would be huge. It would set a precedent for how African states cooperate on commodities. Think OPEC, but for diamonds.

Option B: They're competing

Maybe the November 7 talks were just diplomatic theater. Both want control. Anglo American is running a competitive bidding process. They'll play Botswana and Angola against each other to drive up the price.

If this happens, it's the old pattern, African states competing while foreign buyers extract maximum value.

Option C: They're both bidding, but neither will win

At least six other consortia submitted bids:

• Indian diamond houses (KGK Group, Kapu Gems) they control cutting/polishing operations globally
• Qatari sovereign wealth funds, deep pockets, patient capital
• Anil Agarwal (Indian billionaire industrialist) runs Vedanta Resources

Anglo American might choose a non-African buyer because they offer:

• Higher price (less political risk, cleaner financing)
• Industry expertise (know how to run diamond operations)
• Speed (can close fast without navigating government approvals)

If this happens, Africa loses the bid, and the chance to own the value chain slips away.

We'll know by the end of 2025 or early 2026 which scenario plays out.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Two African countries are competing to buy De Beers, the most iconic luxury brand built on African resources.

Anglo American, the current owner, is running away. They looked at $2 billion in unsold inventory, 25% production cuts, and a lab-grown market growing double-digits, and said: "We'd rather own copper mines."

Botswana and Angola are running toward the same asset. They see resource sovereignty. Value chain control. A chance to own the marketing, branding, and sales infrastructure, not just the mining.

One of them is reading the market right. The other is catching a falling knife.

If Botswana/Angola are right:

Natural diamonds will stabilize. Marketing will defend premiums. Millennials and Gen Z will rediscover the appeal of "real" stones. Ownership brings real industrialization, cutting, polishing, branding jobs move to Gaborone and Luanda. African countries finally control the industries built on their resources.

If this plays out, then by 2030, everyone will say “This was the trade of the century.”

On the flip side, If Anglo is right:

Anglo American is walking away from diamonds for a reason.
If their read on the future turns out correct, here’s what it looks like:

Lab-grown diamonds don’t slow down, they dominate.
Natural diamond demand keeps sliding year after year.
And the governments that borrowed billions to buy De Beers are suddenly holding:

• a shrinking revenue stream,
• a massive $5 billion debt,
• and a commodity that has lost its shine.

What follows is predictable:

• Budget cuts.
• Frozen infrastructure projects.
• Tougher fiscal decisions.
• A deeper resource trap, the very thing African countries say they’re trying to escape.

By 2030, this version of the story reads like a tragedy:

“Africa bought the Titanic… but only after it hit the iceberg.”

What to Watch, The Signals That Will Tell Us Where This Is Going

1. The Money Trail (Nov–Dec 2025)

Where is the $5 billion coming from?
State funds? Sovereign wealth? External lenders? Quiet partners in the background?
This will reveal who carries the real risk if things go south.

2. Alliance or Rivalry? (Q1 2026)

Do Angola and Botswana team up to make a united African bid?
Or does Anglo quietly pit them against each other for leverage?
Cooperation would reshape the industry.
Competition would weaken both sides.

3. The Winner’s Vision (2026–2027)

If an African country wins, what happens next?

Do they keep De Beers global and premium, the Hermès of natural diamonds?
Or do they “Africanize” the business and move as much activity home as possible?

Each path has trade-offs for jobs, branding, and long-term competitiveness.

4. The Market Test (2027–2030)

This is the final verdict.

Does natural diamond demand find stability?
Do consumers rediscover the meaning of “real” and “rare”?
Or does lab-grown keep rising and redefine the entire category?

The answer will determine whether this deal becomes a turning point for Africa —
or a very expensive lesson.

By 2027, we'll know whether this was Africa taking control, or Africa catching a falling knife.

READ. REFLECT. RETHINK.

In 2005, Kodak was an iconic brand. Film photography was "real" photography. Digital was for amateurs.

By 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy.

The technology was better. The economics were undeniable. Prestige couldn't fight progress.

Right now, Africa is deciding whether diamonds in 2025 are like Kodak in 2005, an iconic industry in structural decline, or whether this is genuine contrarian genius, buying low when everyone is scared.

The difference between the two scenarios is everything:

Resource sovereignty vs. expensive nostalgia. Strategic control vs. fiscal disaster. Building your future vs. financing your past.

We'll know by 2027.

Until then, the question hangs in the air: Who's catching the falling knife, Anglo American, or Africa? What say ye?

Stay sharp,
The Decode Daily Team

📊 SOURCES:

ANGLO AMERICAN & DE BEERS SALE PROCESS

1. Anglo American corporate restructuring and De Beers exit strategy
   • Anglo Goes for Bold Breakup Plan in Move to Fend Off BHP - Bloomberg, May 2024
2. De Beers inventory crisis and production cuts
   • De Beers sits on $2 billion pile of diamonds as demand slumps - Fortune, December 2024
3. Anglo American sale process and buyer shortlist
   • Anglo American draws Botswana into $5B De Beers sale talks - Mining.com

BOTSWANA'S BID & ECONOMIC CONTEXT

4. Botswana's November 2025 parliamentary statement
   • Botswana taking steps to acquire majority stake in De Beers, president says - Reuters, November 10, 2025
5. Botswana's diamond dependency and economic data
   • Management of Botswana's Diamond Revenues - IMF PFM Blog, July 2024
6. Debswana and Botswana's current stake
   • Debswana Corporate Profile - Debswana [PDF]
   • Our Shareholders - Debswana - Debswana official site

ANGOLA'S BID & STRATEGY

7. Angola's formal bid submission
   • Angola Submits Bid for Anglo American's Entire De Beers Stake - Bloomberg, October 24, 2025
8. Angola's stated plans and industrial policy
   • Angola makes bold move to acquire De Beers stake amid strategic shift - Africanews, October 2025
9. Angola's financing position
   • Angola says national budget will not fund Endiama's De Beers bid - Reuters, October 31, 2025

BOTSWANA-ANGOLA TALKS

10. November 7, 2025 coordination discussions
    • Botswana and Angola hold talks as both seek control of De Beers - Reuters, November 7, 2025

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